Cascadia Lifelines: 'We're going to face serious levels of destruction'
CORVALLIS, Ore. - Oregon State University and eight partners from government and private industry this month began studies for the Cascadia Lifelines Program, a research initiative to help improve critical infrastructure performance during an anticipated major earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone.
The program, coordinated by the OSU School of Civil and Construction Engineering, will immediately begin five research projects with $1.5 million contributed by the partners. Recent work such as the Oregon Resilience Plan has helped to define the potential problems, experts say, and this new initiative will begin to address them in work that may take 50 years or more to implement.
Looming in Oregon's future is a massive earthquake of about magnitude 9.0, which could significantly damage Pacific Northwest roads, bridges, buildings, sewers, gas and water lines, electrical system and much more.
"Compared to the level of earthquake preparedness even in California and Washington, it's clear that Oregon is bringing up the rear," said Scott Ashford, director of the new program. He is the Kearney Professor of Engineering in the OSU College of Engineering, and an international expert who has studied the impact of subduction zone earthquakes in much of the Pacific Rim - including Japan's major disaster of March, 2011.
"Most of Oregon's buildings, roads, bridges and infrastructure were built at a time when it was believed the state was not subject to major earthquakes," Ashford said. "Because of that we're going to face serious levels of destruction. But with programs like this and the commitment of our partners, there's a great deal we can do to proactively prepare for this disaster, and get our lifelines back up and running after the event."
Those "lifelines," Ashford said, are the key not just to saving lives and minimizing damage, but aiding in recovery of the region following a disaster that scientists say is a near certainty. The list of participating partners reflects agencies and companies that understand the challenges they will face, Ashford said.
The partners include the Oregon Department of Transportation, Portland General Electric, Northwest Natural Gas, the Bonneville Power Administration, Port of Portland, Portland Water Bureau, Eugene Water and Electric Board, and Tualatin Valley Water District.
"When I studied areas that had been hard-hit by earthquakes in Chile, New Zealand and Japan, it became apparent that money spent to prepare for and minimize damage from the earthquake was hugely cost-effective," Ashford said. "One utility company in New Zealand said they saved about $10 for every $1 they had spent in retrofitting and rebuilding their infrastructure.
"This impressed upon me that we do not have to just wait for the earthquake to happen," he said. "There's a lot we can do to prepare for it right now that will make a difference. And we have the expertise right here at OSU - in engineering, business, earth sciences, health - to get these programs up and running."
The initial subjects OSU researchers will focus on in the new program include:
- Studies of soil liquefaction, which can greatly reduce the strength of soils and lead to road, bridge, building and other critical infrastructure facility failure;
- Cost effective improvements that could be done to existing and older infrastructure;
- Evacuation routes for Oregonians to use following a major earthquake;
- Tools to plan for hazards and anticipate risks;
- Where and how earthquakes could trigger landslides in Oregon.
Ashford said the consortium will seek additional federal support for the needed research, and also more partners both in government and private industry.
OSU will also continue its collaboration with PEER, the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, which includes work by the leading academic institutions in this field on the West Coast. The Cascadia Lifelines Program will add an emphasis on subduction zone earthquakes, which can behave quite differently and produce shaking that lasts for minutes, instead of the type of strike-slip quakes most common in California that last for tens of seconds. And the utility lifelines work will be focused on the specific challenges facing Oregon.
Aside from some of the infrastructure not being built to withstand major earthquakes, Oregon and the Willamette Valley may face particular risks from liquefaction, in which soil can develop the consistency of "pea soup" and lose much of its strength.
Liquefaction helped cause much of the damage in Japan, which has still not recovered from the destruction more than two years after the event.